S&P price on Mar 4, 2026 at 4pm EST?

The market resolves to the official S&P 500 index level at 4:00pm EST on March 4, 2026, using the resolution source specified in the market terms; consult the market description on KALSHI for the precise data vendor and tie‑breaking rules.

The 60 outcomes represent contiguous price intervals (bins) that span a predefined range; the single outcome whose interval contains the official closing index value at 4pm wins. If the index equals an exact interval boundary, settlement follows the platform's stated convention, so check the market rules for that boundary treatment.

No — this market is tied to the 4:00pm EST close, so trades or price moves occurring after that official close do not affect which outcome wins, though they may influence subsequent markets or derivative settlements.

Identify any pre‑announced data releases, Fed communications, or major corporate earnings timed near or before the close; prioritize events that historically cause same‑day S&P moves and pay attention to the timing relative to the 4pm close because intra‑day releases can drive end‑of‑day positioning and volatility.

Modest total volume suggests limited liquidity and the potential for wider bid‑ask spreads or price sensitivity to new orders; with 60 fine‑grained outcomes, price gaps between active levels can be large, so consider order size, potential slippage, and using limit orders rather than market orders.