| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6,850 or above | 20% | 15¢ | 18¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 6,875 or above | 4% | 4¢ | 11¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 6,825 or above | 31% | 30¢ | 31¢ | — | $623 | Trade → |
| 6,700 or above | 94% | 30¢ | 100¢ | — | $502 | Trade → |
| 6,800 or above | 48% | 40¢ | 44¢ | — | $478 | Trade → |
| 6,925 or above | 11% | 0¢ | 11¢ | — | $390 | Trade → |
| 6,900 or above | 5% | 5¢ | 12¢ | — | $374 | Trade → |
| 6,775 or above | 61% | 52¢ | 59¢ | — | $321 | Trade → |
| 6,675 or above | 87% | 87¢ | 97¢ | — | $289 | Trade → |
| 6,950 or above | 4% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $83 | Trade → |
| 6,625 or above | 94% | 94¢ | 99¢ | — | $55 | Trade → |
| 6,650 or above | 91% | 91¢ | 97¢ | — | $55 | Trade → |
| 6,525 or above | 94% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2 | Trade → |
| 6,575 or above | 0% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,750 or above | 0% | 33¢ | 90¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,725 or above | 0% | 33¢ | 99¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,075 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,300 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,350 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,400 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,600 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,550 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,350 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,975 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,600 or above | 0% | 98¢ | 99¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,400 or above | 0% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,300 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,175 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,500 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,575 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,450 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,050 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,550 or above | 0% | 97¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,200 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,325 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,275 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,425 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,125 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,450 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,100 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,325 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,475 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,375 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,375 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,150 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,250 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,500 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,175 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,250 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,225 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,525 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,425 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,000 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 74¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,125 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,225 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,025 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,475 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,275 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,150 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,200 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the S&P 500 index level will be at 4:00pm EST on March 3, 2026; it matters because the closing index level is a common reference for portfolios, derivatives, and market sentiment.
The S&P 500 is the headline U.S. equity benchmark and typically reflects macroeconomic news, central bank policy, and corporate earnings. Markets often move in response to a stream of scheduled data releases and unscheduled geopolitical or corporate events in the days leading up to a target close. Because this question pins the outcome to a specific timestamp, intraday dynamics and end-of-day trading flows matter as much as multi-week trends.
Odds in this market reflect the aggregated views of participants about which price-range outcome will correspond to the official S&P level at that exact close; they update as new information arrives and as traders reposition ahead of resolution.
It resolves to the official S&P 500 index level at 4:00pm Eastern on March 3, 2026, meaning the closing value at the regulated U.S. market close for that date is the reference point for outcome settlement.
Each outcome corresponds to a discrete price bucket or specific index level range defined by the market maker; traders select the outcome whose bucket they believe will contain the official closing level.
Material scheduled releases published before the 4:00pm EST close can shift intraday pricing and therefore change which outcome is most likely, while releases published after the close will not affect settlement for this event.
Institutional portfolio managers, index arbitrage desks, options market makers, algorithmic traders, and retail participants can all influence the close through large orders, rebalancing activity, and liquidity provision or withdrawal.
Yes—examining recent intraday ranges and how the index reacted to similar catalysts helps set expectations for plausible moves into the March 3 close, but historical patterns are only one input and do not guarantee outcomes.