| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3,999.99 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4,000 to 4,199.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4,200 to 4,399.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4,400 to 4,599.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4,600 to 4,799.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4,800 to 4,999.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 5,000 to 5,199.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 5,200 to 5,399.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 5,400 to 5,599.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 5,600 to 5,799.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 5,800 to 5,999.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,000 to 6,199.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,200 to 6,399.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,400 to 6,599.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,600 to 6,799.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,800 to 6,999.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,000 to 7,199.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,200 to 7,399.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,400 to 7,599.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,600 to 7,799.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,800 to 7,999.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 8,000 to 8,199.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 8,200 to 8,399.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 8,400 to 8,599.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 8,600 to 8,799.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 8,800 to 9,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 9,000.01 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which S&P 500 closing price outcome will prevail at the end of 2026; it matters because year‑end index levels summarize how markets judged economic, corporate, and policy developments over the calendar year.
The S&P 500 is the primary U.S. large‑cap equity benchmark, and its year‑end close reflects cumulative moves from earnings, macro data, central‑bank policy, and major geopolitical events. Over time, year‑end levels have been shaped by cycles in growth, inflation, and risk sentiment; markets price forward expectations into the trading leading up to the final trading day of the year.
Market odds here represent the collective, continually updating market view across the posted price buckets for the S&P at the end of 2026. Use them as a real‑time summary of relative market sentiment, not as guaranteed outcomes.
Settlement will follow the platform's published market rules — typically using the official S&P 500 closing value on the market's specified settlement date (usually the last trading day of 2026); check the market's settlement rule and the platform notice for the exact reference time and data source.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific price bucket or index‑level option shown on the market page; together the 27 outcomes span a range of possible year‑end S&P 500 closes — view the outcome labels on the market to see the exact boundaries for each bucket.
Closes are listed as TBD — the market will remain tradable until the platform posts a closing time for this event; watch the market page and platform announcements for the official trade‑cutoff and any interim updates.
Historical year‑end patterns and volatility provide useful context (seasonality, past responses to similar macro conditions), but they are not predictive by themselves; combine historical context with current earnings trends, macro forecasts, and policy expectations when assessing likely outcomes.
Participants typically include retail traders, institutional speculators, macro funds, and hedgers; those with faster access to corporate earnings insights, macro forecasts, or option‑implied distributions may influence price discovery, so consider liquidity and order flow when interpreting outcome odds.