| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24,600 to 24,699.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,400 to 23,499.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24,500 to 24,599.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 22,899.99 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25,200 to 25,299.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 22,900 to 22,999.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,300 to 23,399.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24,700 to 24,799.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25,600 to 25,699.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25,400 to 25,499.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25,300 to 25,399.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,500 to 23,599.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,900 to 23,999.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24,400 to 24,499.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24,000 to 24,099.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24,900 to 24,999.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,000 to 23,099.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,700 to 23,799.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24,800 to 24,899.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24,100 to 24,199.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24,300 to 24,399.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24,200 to 24,299.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,800 to 23,899.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,600 to 23,699.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,200 to 23,299.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25,700 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,100 to 23,199.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25,000 to 25,099.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25,100 to 25,199.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25,500 to 25,599.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi contract asks which Nasdaq-100 index price range will contain the official index level at 4:00 PM EDT on March 23, 2026; it's useful for traders hedging exposure to short-term directional and volatility risk in large-cap U.S. tech-heavy equities. The outcome matters because it pins settlement to a single market-close reference time that many portfolios and derivative flows reference.
The Nasdaq-100 is a capitalization-weighted index of large nonfinancial U.S. and some international companies, dominated by technology and growth-oriented names; its intraday and close values reflect collective expectations about growth, profits, and interest rates. Late March sits in the U.S. corporate reporting season and close to a routine quarterly index rebalancing, so both scheduled earnings and index composition/flow changes can influence the level around this date.
Market prices for each outcome summarize participants' aggregated views and willingness to take or lay off risk for the specified price buckets; changes in those prices reflect new information, order flow, and liquidity rather than objective probability calibrations.
Settlement uses the Nasdaq-100 index level at 4:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time on March 23, 2026 as specified by the contract; the contract’s settlement rules identify the authoritative index publication or administrator used for the official value.
The 30 outcomes partition the plausible index values on March 23, 2026 into contiguous price buckets shown on the contract page; the outcome whose bucket contains the official 4:00 PM EDT index level is the winner at settlement.
Boundary-handling is defined in the contract’s settlement terms (for example, by specifying inclusive/exclusive endpoints or a tiebreak rule); consult the event’s detailed rules to see which bucket a boundary value is assigned to.
Only prices recorded at or before 4:00 PM EDT in the official index publication are relevant; after-hours trading after 4:00 PM does not change the settlement level unless the contract explicitly states a different reference window.
Track scheduled Nasdaq-100 component earnings and guidance releases, any Federal Reserve statements or minutes, major U.S. macro releases (e.g., CPI, employment reports) timed near that date, official Nasdaq index or rebalancing notices, and breaking geopolitical or market-moving headlines; check the exact calendar for release timestamps so you know whether they land before the 4:00 PM EDT settlement.