| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24,900 to 24,999.99 | 74% | 76¢ | 81¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 24,800 to 24,899.99 | 3% | 3¢ | 7¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 25,000 to 25,099.99 | 19% | 15¢ | 20¢ | — | $984 | Trade → |
| 23,599.99 or below | 3% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $737 | Trade → |
| 24,300 to 24,399.99 | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $671 | Trade → |
| 24,700 to 24,799.99 | 5% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $525 | Trade → |
| 24,600 to 24,699.99 | 2% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $473 | Trade → |
| 23,800 to 23,899.99 | 2% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $379 | Trade → |
| 25,100 to 25,199.99 | 4% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $301 | Trade → |
| 24,400 to 24,499.99 | 2% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $225 | Trade → |
| 23,600 to 23,699.99 | 3% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $112 | Trade → |
| 24,500 to 24,599.99 | 2% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $50 | Trade → |
| 24,100 to 24,199.99 | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $27 | Trade → |
| 25,200 to 25,299.99 | 2% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $26 | Trade → |
| 25,300 to 25,399.99 | 2% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $26 | Trade → |
| 23,900 to 23,999.99 | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8 | Trade → |
| 23,700 to 23,799.99 | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6 | Trade → |
| 26,200 to 26,299.99 | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6 | Trade → |
| 25,700 to 25,799.99 | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6 | Trade → |
| 25,900 to 25,999.99 | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6 | Trade → |
| 25,600 to 25,699.99 | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6 | Trade → |
| 26,100 to 26,199.99 | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6 | Trade → |
| 26,400 or above | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6 | Trade → |
| 26,000 to 26,099.99 | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6 | Trade → |
| 25,400 to 25,499.99 | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6 | Trade → |
| 24,200 to 24,299.99 | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6 | Trade → |
| 25,800 to 25,899.99 | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6 | Trade → |
| 26,300 to 26,399.99 | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6 | Trade → |
| 24,000 to 24,099.99 | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6 | Trade → |
| 25,500 to 25,599.99 | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6 | Trade → |
This market asks which price range the Nasdaq-100 index will be in at 4:00pm EST on March 2, 2026; it matters because a single-time index reading is used by traders to settle contracts, hedge intraday exposure, and capture reactions to same-day news.
The Nasdaq-100 is a tech-heavy index whose intraday level is sensitive to macro data, Fed policy, and large-cap technology and communication services earnings. This contract is offered on KALSHI and has recorded $9,469 in total volume traded to date; outcomes span 30 discrete price buckets that will be settled to the official index reading at the stated time.
Prediction market odds reflect the market’s collective view of which price bucket is most likely given available information and will update as news arrives; interpret odds as a summary of market sentiment and shifting information rather than a guaranteed forecast.
Settlement is determined by the official Nasdaq-100 index value published at 4:00:00pm EST on March 2, 2026 (the regular session close); confirm the contract’s settlement convention on KALSHI for any platform-specific details.
No; the relevant value is the official index level at 4pm EST (the regular trading session close). Pre-market and after-hours prints are not used for that specific timestamp unless the contract rules state otherwise.
The 30 outcomes partition the plausible range of Nasdaq-100 index values into mutually exclusive numeric buckets; the single bucket that contains the official 4pm EST index reading is the winning outcome—check the platform for exact bucket boundaries and labels.
Heavily weighted, high-cap and high-volume constituents typically drive index moves—historically names such as Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, and Meta have outsized impact, but exact influence depends on up-to-date index weights and any rebalancing.
Expect intraday volatility around scheduled releases; traders should reassess positions based on their risk tolerance, liquidity available in the market, and how new information changes the relative plausibility of outcome buckets, and consult real-time market prices before making trades.