| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25,100 or above | 51% | 11¢ | 79¢ | — | $1 | Trade → |
| 24,900 or above | 0% | 11¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24,500 or above | 0% | 11¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,600 or above | 0% | 85¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 21,800 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 21,900 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 22,000 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 27,200 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 22,700 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 27,400 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 22,900 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,100 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,400 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 22,200 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 22,100 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 22,800 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,000 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,200 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,300 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,500 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 26,300 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 26,200 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 26,100 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 26,400 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 26,500 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 26,600 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 26,700 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 26,800 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 22,600 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 27,600 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 27,500 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 27,300 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24,300 or above | 0% | 85¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 26,900 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 27,000 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 22,400 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 22,300 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 22,500 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 27,100 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 21,700 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25,800 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 70¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25,900 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 20¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25,700 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 70¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,900 or above | 0% | 85¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25,300 or above | 0% | 1¢ | 89¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24,600 or above | 0% | 11¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24,700 or above | 0% | 11¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25,400 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 89¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24,200 or above | 0% | 85¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24,800 or above | 0% | 11¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,800 or above | 0% | 85¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24,000 or above | 0% | 85¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25,600 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 50¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,700 or above | 0% | 85¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24,100 or above | 0% | 85¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25,500 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 89¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24,400 or above | 0% | 11¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 26,000 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 20¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25,200 or above | 0% | 11¢ | 88¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25,000 or above | 0% | 11¢ | 90¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks what the Nasdaq-100 index level will be at 4:00 PM EST on March 5, 2026 and settles based on that reported index level. It matters because the settlement value determines which outcome pays and reflects market views of technology- and growth-oriented equities at the close on that date.
The Nasdaq-100 is a market-cap-weighted index of the largest non-financial companies listed on Nasdaq, so large constituents and sector-wide moves can drive the index. Between now and March 5, 2026, scheduled corporate earnings, macroeconomic releases, central bank commentary, and any geopolitical events or shocks can change the index trajectory. Because the event fixes to a specific timestamp (4:00 PM EST), both intraday dynamics and end-of-day order flow are especially relevant.
Prediction market odds reflect the crowd’s current consensus and adjust as new data arrives; they are best read as a market-implied view rather than a guaranteed forecast.
Settlement is based on the official Nasdaq-100 index level published at 4:00 PM EST on March 5, 2026; consult the KALSHI event rules on the market page for the precise data feed or index administrator referenced for settlement.
The trading cutoff is set by the market operator and marked on the KALSHI event page as 'Closes'; because the market currently lists 'Closes: TBD', check the event page for final trading-deadline details ahead of March 5, 2026.
This market’s 60 outcomes divide possible Nasdaq-100 levels at the settlement time into mutually exclusive price ranges, with exactly one outcome paying if the index level falls inside its interval; the outcome labels and boundaries are listed on the event page.
A positive or negative surprise from a large constituent can move its share price and therefore the index materially, altering intraday price trajectories and the index level at the 4:00 PM EST close; traders should monitor scheduled earnings calendars for large-cap constituents ahead of the event.
If the official closing value is unavailable due to a market holiday or disruption, the KALSHI event rules specify an alternate settlement procedure (for example, using the most recent published value or a designated fallback source); review the market’s rules on the event page for the exact contingency policy.