| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24,400 or above | 99% | 50¢ | 100¢ | — | $419 | Trade → |
| 25,200 or above | 26% | 1¢ | 85¢ | — | $132 | Trade → |
| 25,100 or above | 70% | 9¢ | 70¢ | — | $109 | Trade → |
| 25,000 or above | 65% | 5¢ | 63¢ | — | $82 | Trade → |
| 24,700 or above | 71% | 10¢ | 80¢ | — | $75 | Trade → |
| 24,300 or above | 98% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $48 | Trade → |
| 26,000 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $15 | Trade → |
| 24,500 or above | 87% | 19¢ | 93¢ | — | $10 | Trade → |
| 24,600 or above | 82% | 10¢ | 89¢ | — | $10 | Trade → |
| 24,800 or above | 11% | 10¢ | 71¢ | — | $6 | Trade → |
| 26,400 or above | 2% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $5 | Trade → |
| 26,200 or above | 2% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $5 | Trade → |
| 26,300 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5 | Trade → |
| 23,200 or above | 0% | 1¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 22,800 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 22,300 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 26,800 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 27,300 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 27,800 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25,800 or above | 0% | 2¢ | 20¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25,900 or above | 0% | 2¢ | 20¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,700 or above | 0% | 85¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,600 or above | 0% | 85¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24,000 or above | 0% | 13¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,900 or above | 0% | 11¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 21,900 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 26,100 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,300 or above | 0% | 85¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 22,100 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 22,400 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 22,700 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25,300 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 89¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25,400 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 89¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,800 or above | 0% | 85¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 22,600 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 27,100 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,500 or above | 0% | 85¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25,500 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 87¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 27,200 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,000 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 27,500 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 22,900 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25,600 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 89¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,400 or above | 0% | 85¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25,700 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 89¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 27,700 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 22,500 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 26,700 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 22,000 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 27,600 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 27,400 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,100 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24,100 or above | 0% | 11¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 22,200 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24,200 or above | 0% | 11¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 27,000 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 26,500 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 26,600 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24,900 or above | 0% | 29¢ | 89¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 26,900 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks what the Nasdaq-100 index level will be at 4:00pm EST on March 3, 2026; it matters because that timestamp coincides with the U.S. equity market close and aggregates market expectations about news and flows affecting large-cap technology and growth stocks.
The contract is hosted on Kalshi in the Financials category and lists 60 discrete outcomes representing possible index price intervals; total volume traded to date is $921 and the event's formal close time is listed as TBD. Markets that resolve to an index snapshot at the close typically reflect a mix of macro releases, corporate earnings, Fed-related developments, and intraday liquidity dynamics.
Prediction market prices express market participants' collective, time-sensitive views about which outcome will settle; they are best interpreted as a continuously updating signal of sentiment rather than a fixed long-term forecast.
It settles to the Nasdaq-100 index level as defined by the contract's rulebook at 4:00pm EST on that date; consult the event page or Kalshi's resolution rules for the precise data source, feed, and any rounding or tie-breaking conventions used for settlement.
Trading close is marked as TBD on the event page; outcome finalization occurs after the index value is observed at 4:00pm EST and the platform completes any verification or processing steps described in its settlement timeline—check Kalshi for the exact post-close finalization schedule.
The 60 outcomes represent non-overlapping price intervals (buckets) that together cover a range of possible index levels; the event details list each interval's endpoints and whether endpoints are inclusive, so you match the observed index print at 4:00pm EST to the corresponding interval to determine the winning outcome.
Yes—material earnings from large Nasdaq-100 constituents or macro releases occurring before the 4:00pm EST observation can shift index levels and therefore which outcome settles, so review the corporate earnings calendar and economic release schedule for that day.
The closing auction concentrates buy and sell interest and can produce sharp moves at 4:00pm EST; because this contract resolves to the index level at that timestamp, auction imbalances and late flows can materially affect the settled outcome, and the contract's resolution rules will state whether the post-auction print or auction clearing price is used.