| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ 6,600 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ 6,500 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ 6,400 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| 6,300 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,200 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,100 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,000 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 5,900 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which numeric range will be the lowest closing level of the S&P 500 during the current calendar year; it matters because the market aggregates traders' views about downside risk and can signal expected stress or resilience in equity markets.
The S&P 500 is the broad benchmark for U.S. large-cap equities and is sensitive to monetary policy, corporate earnings, and macroeconomic data. Markets regularly reassess the index's downside as new information arrives — past years show that headline shocks (rate moves, recessions, geopolitical crises) and earnings surprises drive large intra-year drawdowns.
Prices on this market represent collective judgments about which numeric low-range the S&P will hit this year; movements reflect new information and changes in trader expectations rather than a single objectively ‘correct’ forecast.
The event page on the exchange lists each of the eight discrete outcome buckets and their exact index-range definitions; consult that outcome table for the precise boundaries used for settlement.
The platform will publish a closing date and the official settlement rules when they are set; final settlement will follow the exchange's stated price source and timing (check the event's rules or contract specifications on the platform for the authoritative procedure).
That volume indicates the dollar amount traders have put into positions so far, which provides a rough sense of liquidity and engagement; interpret it relative to other markets and recent activity — higher volume generally improves price reliability, while low volume can mean prices move more on few trades.
Treat this market as one real-time indicator reflecting aggregated trader expectations; combine its signals with macroeconomic analysis, earnings outlooks, volatility measures, and your risk framework rather than relying on it in isolation.
Major Federal Reserve statements or surprise rate decisions, unexpected inflation or labor-market prints, large earnings shocks from mega-cap firms, sudden geopolitical crises or energy-supply disruptions, and abrupt liquidity or credit-market stress can all trigger swift re-pricing of the market's outcomes.