| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ 25,500 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ 24,600 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ 25,400 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ 24,400 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ 24,200 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ 25,200 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ 25,000 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ 24,000 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ 23,800 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ 24,800 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ 23,600 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| 23,400 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,200 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23,000 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to pick how low the Nasdaq-100 index will fall at its lowest official daily close during calendar year 2026. It matters because the Nasdaq-100 is concentrated in large-cap growth and technology names, so its deepest intra-year low is a useful gauge of stress for growth exposures and portfolio drawdowns.
The Nasdaq-100 is a market-cap-weighted index dominated by technology and consumer-discretionary firms; it has historically shown larger cyclical swings than broad-market indexes. Expectations for 2026 will reflect the macroeconomic backdrop (growth, inflation, and central bank policy), corporate earnings and guidance from large constituents, sector-specific developments (AI, semiconductors, cloud), and episodic shocks such as geopolitics or regulatory actions.
Market prices on this contract represent the collective, continuously updated view of participants about which discrete low-range the index will hit in 2026; they should be read as relative market-implied information that updates with new data, not as fixed predictions or guarantees.
Outcomes correspond to pre-specified numeric ranges for the Nasdaq-100's lowest official daily closing level during calendar year 2026; the winning outcome is whichever range contains that lowest close. Exact numeric boundaries and payoff rules are listed in the market's contract terms on the exchange page.
For this market, 'how low' refers to the lowest official daily closing value during calendar year 2026 as recorded by the settlement source specified in the contract — it does not refer to intraday ticks unless the contract explicitly states otherwise.
Settlement will use the official Nasdaq-100 index values from the index administrator or the authoritative data feed named in the market's contract terms; the market page and contract documentation list the exact source and the timing rules that determine which daily close counts.
Historical lows and drawdown magnitudes help frame plausible downside ranges and volatility regimes, but you should adjust for current differences in macro conditions, interest-rate trajectory, index concentration, and sector fundamentals entering 2026. Treat history as a reference, not a guarantee.
Events that could push the market toward lower outcomes include an unexpected economic slowdown or recession, upward surprises in inflation prompting tighter policy, disappointing earnings or guidance from large index constituents, significant outflows from major ETFs or liquidity shocks, and sudden regulatory or geopolitical developments that materially harm growth-sector revenues or margins.