| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ $80.01 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ $85.01 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ $90.01 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ $95.01 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ $100.01 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ $105.01 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ $110.01 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| $115.01 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $120.01 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $125.01 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $130.01 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $135.01 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $140.01 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $150.01 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $160.01 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $180.01 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $200.01 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which price band WTI crude oil will reach at its highest point on or before December 31, 2026; outcomes matter because the peak WTI price influences energy company earnings, inflation, and broader financial markets.
Global oil prices reflect a balance of supply (OPEC+ policy, U.S. shale output, spare capacity) and demand (economic growth in major consumers, transportation fuel use, and industrial activity). Structural trends such as energy transition, investment cycles in upstream capacity, and geopolitical tensions have produced multi-year swings in WTI in recent decades.
Prices in this prediction market represent the market’s collective view of which discrete price bracket will contain the highest WTI before the specified cutoff; they update as new information arrives and are a consensus signal rather than a guaranteed forecast.
This market is divided into discrete price brackets (16 outcomes); each outcome corresponds to a defined WTI price range. The market will resolve to the single bracket that contains the event’s official highest WTI value during the observation window—see the event rules for the exact band definitions.
The phrase 'by Dec 31, 2026' creates the observation window for the market: only WTI highs occurring on or before that date count for resolution. Trading dynamics often change as that date approaches because the remaining time for price-moving events shrinks; check the market page for the trading close time and any extension rules.
The market will reference a specific official WTI price series or exchange settlement (specified in the event’s settlement rules) to determine the highest observed price. Always consult the event’s detailed resolution criteria on the platform to see the exact data source and timestamp used for settlement.
Key items include OPEC+ meeting outcomes and quota changes, U.S. EIA weekly inventory reports and Strategic Petroleum Reserve actions, major geopolitical shocks or sanctions, macroeconomic indicators (growth, industrial activity), and industry data like rig counts and capex announcements that affect future supply.
Historical peaks often result from swift supply shocks or coordinated production cuts and can be short-lived intra-day spikes or sustained rallies. Traders should consider both the likelihood of transient spikes (driven by shocks) and sustained highs (requiring persistent supply/demand imbalance), and factor in market volatility, spare capacity, and the credibility of policy responses.