| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| above $4409.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4429.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4449.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4469.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4489.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4509.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4529.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4549.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4569.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4589.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4609.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4629.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4649.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4669.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4689.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4709.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4729.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4749.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4769.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4789.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4809.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4829.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4849.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4869.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4889.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4909.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4929.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4949.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4969.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4989.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $5009.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $5029.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $5049.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $5069.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $5089.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $5109.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $5129.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $5149.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $5169.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $5189.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the observed gold price will be at 5:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time on March 27, 2026; outcomes let traders express views on where the spot price will sit at that specific timestamp. It matters because the gold price at a fixed settlement time is a common reference for hedging, speculation, and short-term macro signaling.
Gold is sensitive to global monetary policy, real interest rates, the U.S. dollar, inflation expectations, and sudden geopolitical shocks. In the run-up to March 27, 2026, participants will weigh recent central bank statements, macroeconomic releases, Treasury yields, ETF flows, and any supply or demand developments in physical markets and mining. Short-term volatility around the settlement timestamp can be driven by same-day data releases, market microstructure, and liquidity conditions.
Market prices here represent the aggregated expectations of traders about which listed outcome will contain the official reference gold price at 5pm EDT on March 27, 2026; those prices move as new information arrives and reflect relative market sentiment rather than a fixed forecast.
Settlement is based on the gold reference price at 5:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time on March 27, 2026 — EDT is UTC−4; confirm the market page for how seconds and ties are treated.
The 40 outcomes correspond to predefined price intervals (discrete buckets); the winning outcome is the bucket that contains the official reference price at the settlement timestamp — see the market listing for the exact bucket boundaries.
This event is hosted on KALSHI and will settle to the exchange's stated reference price or data source; consult the market rules or the event's settlement details to identify the specific benchmark used (e.g., an exchange feed or published spot rate).
Yes — any official economic data or central bank commentary released before 5:00 PM EDT on that day can move spot gold and thus change which outcome wins; releases after that timestamp generally will not affect settlement for this event.
In the event of a disruption, KALSHI's stated contingency and settlement rules apply: they may use an alternate reference, a delayed settlement window, or an official revision policy — check the exchange's rulebook and any on‑market announcements for the definitive procedure.