| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.16000 to 1.16199 | 27% | 16¢ | 26¢ | — | $247 | Trade → |
| 1.15800 to 1.15999 | 11% | 7¢ | 18¢ | — | $133 | Trade → |
| 1.15400 to 1.15599 | 11% | 0¢ | 9¢ | — | $55 | Trade → |
| 1.16200 to 1.16399 | 23% | 15¢ | 25¢ | — | $36 | Trade → |
| 1.15600 to 1.15799 | 16% | 2¢ | 13¢ | — | $16 | Trade → |
| 1.15200 to 1.15399 | 8% | 0¢ | 6¢ | — | $11 | Trade → |
| 1.16600 to 1.16799 | 20% | 5¢ | 16¢ | — | $10 | Trade → |
| 1.17800 or above | 5% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $3 | Trade → |
| 1.1519899999999998 or below | 6% | 0¢ | 6¢ | — | $2 | Trade → |
| 1.17200 to 1.17399 | 0% | 0¢ | 6¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 1.17400 to 1.17599 | 0% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 1.17600 to 1.17799 | 0% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 1.16400 to 1.16599 | 0% | 11¢ | 21¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 1.17000 to 1.17199 | 0% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 1.16800 to 1.16999 | 0% | 0¢ | 10¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which price range the EUR/USD spot rate will be in at 10:00 AM EDT on March 11, 2026. It matters because short‑term FX levels affect hedges, cross‑border cash flows, and trading strategies that are sensitive to intraday exchange‑rate moves.
EUR/USD reflects the relative economic outlook and monetary policy expectations for the euro area versus the United States, and it is routinely driven by inflation, growth data, central bank communications, and major geopolitical developments. Around any given date, markets price in recent data releases and rate expectations; with a fixed timestamp resolution, this event captures the market's snapshot at that specific moment. Because the market resolves to a precise minute, any news arriving just before 10:00 AM EDT can materially affect the outcome.
Odds in this prediction market represent the market's aggregated view of which discrete price bin will hold at the specified timestamp; they are dynamic and update as participants trade on new information. Use them as real‑time consensus signals, not as guarantees of a particular result.
The market is divided into 15 discrete price‑range outcomes (bins). Each bin corresponds to a specific EUR/USD interval defined in the contract; see the event page on Kalshi for the precise boundaries of each outcome.
The contract resolves to the EUR/USD spot rate at 10:00 AM EDT on March 11, 2026. The platform's trading close time for this market will be shown on the event page (currently listed as TBD), and trades must be completed before the platform's stated close to be accepted.
Resolution uses the price feed or authoritative data source specified in the contract terms on the event page and Kalshi's resolution policy; check the market's rules section for the named data provider or methodology prior to trading.
A relatively small total volume combined with many outcome bins implies liquidity may be limited and individual trades can move market prices substantially. Factor this into position sizing, expected spreads, and exit planning since it can be harder to enter or exit large positions without moving the market.
Look for major U.S. data (consumer price indexes, employment reports, Fed speakers) and euro‑area releases or ECB comments in the 48 hours prior, as well as unexpected geopolitical developments or major market shocks; any material headline arriving before the resolution time can shift the price used to settle the contract.