| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic party | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Republican party | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which party will win the U.S. House seat for Wyoming's at-large congressional district (WY-AL). The outcome matters for national House arithmetic and as a gauge of party strength in a deeply rural, energy-dependent state.
Wyoming has a single at-large House seat and a strong recent history of voting Republican; the seat has been held by a Republican incumbent since the 2022 election. Key state issues that shape House races include energy and mineral policy, public lands, agriculture, and population- and turnout-driven dynamics in towns like Cheyenne, Casper and Teton County.
Market prices reflect traders’ aggregated expectations based on available information (polls, fundraising, news, local developments) and can move quickly as new information arrives; they are not guarantees but a real-time signal of perceived likelihood.
The market's close/settlement date is listed as TBD on the market page; typically election markets settle after the official, certified result is declared according to the exchange's resolution rules. Check the event page and the exchange's official rules for the precise settlement trigger.
The two outcomes correspond to the party labels shown on the market (typically the Republican and Democratic parties for the WY-AL House race). The market resolves to the party of the certified, seated winner.
Because the market lists only two outcomes, settlement in the event of a third-party or independent win will follow the exchange's contingency procedures; consult the market rules or contact exchange support to learn how such cases are handled for this specific listing.
If the result is disputed or certification is delayed, the market will generally remain unsettled until the exchange's specified certification or legal-resolution criteria are met; this can delay settlement until official state certification or final legal outcomes are available.
An incumbent typically brings name recognition, fundraising advantages, and an operational campaign, which traders treat as factors in pricing; if the incumbent withdraws, is replaced, or faces significant controversy, those changes can materially shift market prices.