| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Toth | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $166K | Trade → |
| Dan Crenshaw | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $160K | Trade → |
| Martin Etwop | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| N. Lee Plumb | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $82 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will become the Republican nominee for Texas's 2nd Congressional District (TX-02). It matters because the nominee determines who will represent Republican voters in the general election and shapes the district's partisan and policy outlook.
TX-02 is a U.S. House contest decided through Texas's Republican primary process (and, if no candidate receives the required threshold, a runoff between the top two vote-getters). Local demographics, recent redistricting, and turnout patterns in Republican primaries are important background factors that shape how competitive the nomination can be.
Market prices aggregate traders' information and beliefs about which listed outcome will be the official Republican nominee; prices change as new information arrives and are best read as a real-time consensus signal rather than a deterministic forecast.
It resolves to whichever individual is officially certified as the Republican nominee for TX-02 according to the market's stated resolution source (typically official state or party certification); check the market page for the precise resolution authority.
If no candidate reaches the required threshold in the primary and a runoff is held, the market will resolve to the eventual runoff winner; markets typically remain open and update during the runoff period until the final certification is available.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific candidate or a category listed on the market page (for example named candidates and sometimes an 'other' or 'no nominee' option); consult the market page to see the exact labels and which person or event each outcome covers.
Yes—withdrawals, disqualifications, or ballot-access changes can alter which outcomes are relevant; the market and participants will adjust prices and the platform may update or collapse outcomes per its rules, so monitor announcements on the market page.
Major movers include official candidate filings or withdrawals, large-scale endorsements, reported fundraising totals and major spending shifts, credible local polling or early voting data, and official primary/runoff schedules or certification updates.