| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Fernández | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $205K | Trade → |
| Álvaro Ramos | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $56K | Trade → |
| Pilar Cisneros | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| Claudia Dobles | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Fabricio Alvarado | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| José María Figueres | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Ariel Robles | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $844 | Trade → |
| Natalia Díaz | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $665 | Trade → |
| Lineth Saborío Chaverri | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $31 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual or option will be listed as the winner of the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election on KALSHI. It matters because election outcomes determine national policy direction and can shift investor and geopolitical expectations for Costa Rica.
Costa Rica is a stable democratic republic with a presidential system and a history of peaceful transfers of power. Recent cycles have shown party fragmentation, the rise of outsider candidates, and voter concern about the economy, public security, and corruption. The electoral authority (Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones, TSE) administers and certifies results under rules that can produce a second-round runoff if no candidate meets the threshold to win outright.
Market prices reflect the collective assessment of who will be listed as the winner according to the market’s resolution rules, not a forecast of vote shares. Check the market’s resolution terms and the TSE’s certification process to understand timing and conditions for settlement.
Resolution timing follows KALSHI’s posted rules for this market; typically the market will settle based on the official outcome as defined in the contract language and after the Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones (TSE) provides the result required by those rules. If the contract is contingent on the final certified winner, it will wait for the TSE’s certification and any applicable runoff outcome.
If no candidate reaches the legal threshold to win outright in the first round, a second-round runoff between the top two vote-getters determines the president; the market’s outcome will follow the winner as defined by the market’s resolution terms, which often align with the TSE’s final certified winner after any runoff.
The nine outcomes correspond to the specific candidate names or options specified on the market contract (including any ‘other’ or aggregated choices). Consult the market page for the exact mapping of each listed outcome to a candidate or outcome label.
Relevant patterns include frequent party fragmentation and swings toward outsider candidates, the influence of economic performance on incumbents’ parties, regional turnout differences, and the impact of coalition-building between rounds. These tendencies can affect both first-round leaders and runoff dynamics.
Major movers include official candidate registrations, primary or nomination results, nationally reported polls and debate performances, prominent endorsements or alliance announcements, corruption investigations or legal rulings involving candidates, and any sudden economic or security shocks.