| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2028 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether two SpaceX Starships will successfully dock with each other before 2028. The outcome is a milestone indicator for on‑orbit refueling, complex rendezvous operations, and SpaceX’s plans for large-scale crewed and cargo missions.
Starship is SpaceX’s large, fully reusable spacecraft family intended for Earth orbit, lunar missions, and Mars transport; its development has used rapid iterative testing, prototype flights, and incremental capability demonstrations. Docking two Starships is a distinct operational step beyond single-vehicle flights because it requires precision rendezvous, docking hardware and control software, and mission planning that prioritizes on‑orbit interaction.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective assessment of whether this technical milestone will happen by the stated cutoff and incorporate information about testing cadence, regulatory approvals, and engineering risk. Prices move as new data (launches, test results, regulator actions, or company statements) change expectations, and are not guarantees of the outcome.
It means a deliberate rendezvous and physical connection between two Starship‑class vehicles operated by SpaceX; precise adjudication depends on the market operator’s resolution criteria, so check that page for the official definition.
Most reasonable interpretations require an intentional, controlled docking and evidence of mechanical capture or latching rather than an accidental or transient contact, but verify the market’s official rules for required proof.
Yes—any docking involving two Starship‑class vehicles (including tanker-to-tanker or tanker-to-crew configurations) would typically be considered, subject to the market’s stated resolution language.
Commonly this phrase means any time prior to the start of 2028 (i.e., before Jan 1, 2028 UTC), but the official market resolution will specify the exact cutoff used to determine the outcome—consult that for certainty.
Publicly available sources such as SpaceX mission live streams and press releases, independent tracking and telemetry, partner agency confirmations, and regulatory filings are typically used; the market operator will list acceptable evidence types for resolution.