| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gemini-3.1-pro-preview | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $311K | Trade → |
| claude-opus-4-6-thinking | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $99K | Trade → |
| claude-opus-4-6 | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | — | $62K | Trade → |
| gpt-5.2-chat-latest-20260210 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| grok-4.20-beta1 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| gemini-3-pro | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| kimi-k2.5-thinking | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| gemini-3-flash | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| dola-seed-2.0-preview | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $647 | Trade → |
| ernie-5.0-0110 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $181 | Trade → |
This market asks which specific AI model will be judged the “Top AI model this week” on KALSHI; it matters because it aggregates trader expectations about which model will lead in short‑term performance, attention, or benchmark outcomes.
Short‑term 'top model' markets respond quickly to benchmarks, demos, product updates, and media coverage; they are useful for tracking which models are gaining momentum over a defined week. This market lists ten possible outcomes and has attracted $254,214 in traded volume, showing active participation; the official closing time is listed as TBD on the event page and will be posted by KALSHI when set.
Market prices/odds represent the collective view of traders about which named outcome will satisfy the event's resolution criteria and will move as new information becomes available; they are indicators of belief, not guarantees of the result.
The event currently shows a closing time of TBD; KALSHI will publish the official close on the event page and via platform notifications, so monitor the market listing for updates or contact KALSHI support if you need confirmation.
Each outcome corresponds to a model name listed on the market page; the winner is determined according to the market’s resolution criteria as written in the event description (for example, a defined metric, leaderboard placement, or editorial designation) — consult the market text for the precise rule that will be applied at resolution.
Substantial volume indicates higher liquidity and greater engagement from traders, which typically makes prices more informative and less prone to being moved by very small trades; volume is a signal of interest but does not guarantee accuracy of the market’s final outcome.
Events that provide clear, comparable information—published benchmark results, model releases or updates, high‑profile demos, partnership or integration announcements, and major reliability or safety incidents—are most likely to shift trader expectations for which model will be considered top.
Resolution in ambiguous or tied cases follows KALSHI’s dispute and adjudication procedures as specified in their market rules; that may include predefined tiebreakers or manual review by the platform, and affected traders should review the market rules and contact KALSHI support for clarification.