| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether former President Donald Trump will be permitted to run for a third presidential term under U.S. law and ballot-access processes. The question matters because court rulings and administrative decisions on eligibility would shape the electoral field and set legal precedents.
Key legal authorities include the 22nd Amendment (which limits presidents to two elected terms) and Section 3 of the 14th Amendment (which has been invoked as a potential disqualification for officeholding for those who engaged in insurrection). State ballot-access rules, ongoing litigation, and possible appeals up to the U.S. Supreme Court create multiple pathways and uncertainties that could determine whether a candidacy is allowed.
Market prices aggregate traders' views about how courts, election officials, and other actors will resolve the legal and administrative questions relevant to this event. Prices can change quickly as new filings, rulings, or administrative actions occur.
Two constitutional sources are central: the 22nd Amendment (term limits) and Section 3 of the 14th Amendment (disqualification for insurrection). How courts interpret and apply those provisions to the specific facts would be decisive.
State secretaries of state and election boards handle ballot access and can receive challenges to a candidate’s eligibility; their decisions can be appealed to state and federal courts and may be stayed or overturned during litigation.
Criminal convictions do not automatically disqualify someone from running under the Constitution; however, convictions can trigger legal challenges, administrative obstacles, and logistical issues that courts may need to resolve.
Challenges usually start in trial courts, proceed to intermediate appeals, and can reach state supreme courts or federal circuits; given the stakes, parties often seek emergency relief from the U.S. Supreme Court, and the process can accelerate near ballot printing deadlines.
Key decision-makers include state election officials and courts, federal trial and appellate courts, state supreme courts, and potentially the U.S. Supreme Court, along with state attorneys general and private litigants who bring or defend challenges.