| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2030 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether there will be at least one calendar year with no reported polio cases before 2030. It matters because a polio-free year is a major milestone for eradication efforts and affects public-health priorities and funding.
Global polio incidence has fallen dramatically since the late 1980s due to mass vaccination campaigns and coordinated surveillance, leaving wild poliovirus largely confined to a small number of areas. Wild poliovirus types 2 and 3 have been declared eradicated, while type 1 remains the primary concern in a few endemic settings. Ongoing challenges include outbreaks of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus and variable immunization coverage in conflict-affected or hard-to-reach populations.
Market odds aggregate participants' real-time expectations and information and should be read as a collective signal of perceived risk and uncertainty, not a guarantee. Check the contract and recent news to understand what drives odds movements over time.
The precise settlement definition is in the contract description on the trading platform; commonly it refers to a calendar year with zero reported cases of wild poliovirus globally, but some contracts may include or exclude vaccine-derived cases—confirm the contract language before trading.
Settlement typically references official surveillance and case reports from WHO, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, and national health authorities; the contract should state the authoritative source used for settlement.
That depends on the contract's rules about reporting and confirmation windows; late or retrospectively identified cases can affect whether a specific calendar year is recorded as having zero cases if the settlement criteria include report or confirmation dates.
Whether cVDPV cases count depends on the market's settlement definition; operationally, cVDPVs can produce clinically indistinguishable paralytic cases and often prevent a year with zero polio cases unless the contract explicitly restricts counting to wild poliovirus only.
Large increases in vaccination coverage and successful outbreak responses in endemic and high-risk regions, significant improvements in surveillance and laboratory confirmation, cessation or rapid control of cVDPV outbreaks, or major disruptions to programs (for example due to conflict or funding shortfalls) would have the largest impacts on the outcome.