| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Above 500 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above 750 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above 1000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Above 1250 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Above 1500 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1750 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 8000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 10000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This KALSHI market asks which measles-case outcome will occur in 2026; it matters because measles incidence affects public-health planning, vaccine campaigns, and community risk assessments.
Measles resurgence in recent years has been driven by gaps in immunization, importations, and uneven surveillance; 2026 outcomes will reflect those ongoing dynamics plus any new policy or supply developments. This market lists 11 distinct outcomes and has attracted meaningful trading activity (total volume traded reported by the platform), signaling active interest from traders and observers.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective expectations about reported measles cases in 2026 and update as new surveillance, outbreak, or policy information arrives; use them alongside official epidemiological data rather than as sole evidence.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific predefined range or threshold of reported measles cases in 2026 as defined on the market page; consult the event description and settlement rules on KALSHI for the exact labels and boundaries of those outcomes.
'TBD' means the official closing date or trigger has not yet been published by the exchange; traders should monitor the market page for an announced close or any rule updates, and factor the uncertain timeline into position sizing and risk management.
Settlement will rely on the specific data source named in the market’s settlement terms (for example, a national public-health agency, the CDC, WHO, or another agreed surveillance dataset); check the market rules to confirm the exact authoritative dataset and any applicable reporting cutoffs.
New outbreak reports typically change expectations quickly by adding near-term evidence of transmission; traders should consider timeliness, geographic scope, and reporting lags when assessing how a single outbreak might shift the market relative to larger national or international trends.
Major actions such as large-scale emergency vaccination campaigns, sudden vaccine supply disruptions, changes to reporting or case definitions, or high-profile superspreader events can all prompt rapid reassessment of likely outcomes and produce fast market moves.