| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether at least one confirmed case of poliomyelitis will be reported in the United States during the relevant calendar year. The outcome matters because a confirmed case indicates gaps in immunity or surveillance and typically triggers public-health investigations and interventions.
Wild poliovirus has been eliminated from much of the world, but vaccine-derived polioviruses and importations still cause outbreaks in some regions; the U.S. stopped endemic transmission decades ago thanks to high routine vaccination. Recent global detections, changing travel patterns, local pockets of low vaccination, and expanded wastewater surveillance have all affected the landscape for detecting poliovirus in high-income countries.
Market prices reflect the collective, continuously updated judgment about whether the event described (a confirmed polio case in the U.S. during the year) will occur under the contract's rules. Monitor changes in price as new surveillance, travel, or public-health response information becomes available.
Typically this means at least one confirmed case of poliomyelitis reported by U.S. public-health authorities—usually an acute flaccid paralysis case with laboratory confirmation of poliovirus. Check the market's contract text for the specific case definition and reporting sources that the market will accept.
Wastewater detection signals circulation or importation risk but is not the same as a clinical case; whether it counts depends on the market's contract. In public-health practice, wastewater findings usually prompt intensified clinical surveillance and testing rather than being recorded as a clinical 'case.'
Both wild poliovirus and circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) can cause paralytic cases and would typically be relevant if the market's definition includes any confirmed poliomyelitis. Verify the contract wording to see if it distinguishes virus types.
State and local health departments investigate suspected cases and laboratories often forward specimens to the CDC for confirmation; the CDC and relevant state health department announcements are typical official sources. The market will usually reference public-health agency reports as the authoritative settlement source.
Watch official CDC and state health-department reports, wastewater surveillance updates, acute flaccid paralysis alerts from hospitals or clinicians, WHO situation reports from countries with recent poliovirus circulation, and rapid-response vaccination campaign announcements—each can materially change the outlook under the market's rules.