| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2028 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before 2030 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before 2032 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before 2034 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) will reach the 270 electoral-vote threshold through state enactments before 2030. The outcome matters because reaching that threshold would commit a majority of electors to the national popular vote winner, altering presidential-electoral mechanics without a constitutional amendment.
The NPVIC is an agreement among states to award their electoral votes to the presidential candidate who wins the national popular vote; it has been advanced incrementally through state legislation and ballot measures over the past two decades. Adoption has proceeded state-by-state, shaped by partisan control of legislatures, governors, and voter initiatives, and has prompted legal and political debate over interstate compacts and the Electoral College. Whether the compact reaches the required total depends on continued legislative activity, potential rescissions, and court rulings.
Market odds represent the aggregated, continually updating beliefs of traders about this event given current information; they respond quickly to legislative votes, ballot outcomes, and legal developments. Treat market prices as real-time indicators of collective expectations, not guarantees—new state actions or court decisions can shift them rapidly.
For this event, 'reaching 270' means the combined electoral-vote total of states that have enacted the compact into law equals or exceeds the 270-electoral-vote threshold used to elect a president. That total is based on the electoral votes allocated to each member state under current law at the time of counting.
'Before 2030' is generally understood to mean prior to the start of calendar year 2030—i.e., that enough states must have enacted the compact by the end of 2029 for the event to resolve as occurring. Check the market rules for the official settlement cutoff used by the platform.
States that have enacted NPVIC legislation into state law count toward the total; enactment pathways include legislative passage followed by whatever executive or procedural steps state law requires (such as a governor’s signature or the completion of a scheduled effective date). Ballot-initiated statutes or constitutional amendments enacted by voters also count once they are legally effective. Conversely, formal rescissions remove a state's electoral votes from the compact total if they take effect before the deadline.
Yes. Litigation alleging that the compact violates the Constitution (for example under the Compact Clause) or other legal challenges can delay implementation, lead states to pause or rescind membership, or result in a court decision that affects the compact’s enforceability. Such rulings can therefore change both the path to 270 and whether achieving 270 would produce the intended outcome.
Watch state legislative calendars and vote schedules in high-electoral-vote states, governor actions on pending bills, certified results of any ballot initiatives related to the compact, announcements of rescission efforts, and filings or major decisions in litigation concerning the compact. Shifts in partisan control of state government after elections are also key drivers.