| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether the specific, named 'Citrini scenario' will occur; it matters because the outcome captures whether a particular political sequence or decision — as defined by the contract — comes to pass. Traders use the market to express and aggregate expectations about that political development.
The 'Citrini scenario' label refers to a particular event or chain of events in the political sphere; such scenarios typically hinge on actions by officials, courts, institutions, or influential actors. Historical precedents show that named scenarios can crystallize around legal rulings, executive decisions, or coordinated political moves, and their likelihood often shifts with new public information and institutional signals.
Market prices reflect the collective judgment of participants and move as new, verifiable information arrives; interpret them as a real‑time signal of market expectations rather than a guarantee. For the definitive settlement criteria and timeline, consult the contract text on the market page.
The market settles according to the event definition printed on the market page; only occurrences that match that exact, publicly stated definition and the exchange's adjudication rules will be accepted for settlement.
The market's close date or settlement window is specified on its page (listed as TBD if not set); whether an occurrence is in‑scope depends on that timeframe and the contract's language.
Exchanges typically rely on official records, primary documents, and reporting from authoritative sources named in the contract; check the market page for any listed adjudication sources or dispute procedures.
Key actors will be the individuals, agencies, courts, or legislative bodies referenced in the contract; tracking statements and formal actions by those parties is the most direct way to assess prospects.
Treat new, verifiable developments as informative signals that can change market expectations, but always compare them to the contract's settlement criteria and watch for clarifying documents or rulings that confirm or negate the scenario.