| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2028 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether OpenAI will make a monetary payment to satisfy a tort claim for more than $1 million in damages at any time before 2028. Outcomes like this matter because large tort payments reveal legal exposure, can affect company finances, insurance, and public perceptions of liability risk in the AI sector.
Tort claims are civil lawsuits alleging harms such as negligence, privacy breaches, defamation, or certain intellectual-property torts; they are distinct from regulatory fines or contractual disputes. Technology companies, including AI firms, have faced a growing number of tort and mass‑harm suits as their products scale, and outcomes range from dismissed claims to multi‑million settlements or judgments. Whether a given claim results in a payment over $1 million depends on claim strength, litigation posture, jurisdictional rules, and insurers or settlement negotiations.
Market prices aggregate participants' current information and expectations about the chance of a qualifying payment occurring before 2028; they move as new filings, settlements, or disclosures appear. Use the market as a continuously updated signal, while also checking primary sources (court dockets, company filings, claimant statements) for verification.
A qualifying occurrence is a monetary payment made to resolve or satisfy a tort claim alleging civil wrongdoing (for example, damages for negligence, privacy/invasion claims, or certain IP torts). This can be a settlement payment, a court judgment, or another binding payment that discharges the tort claim.
Yes. A settlement or payment that resolves a tort claim generally counts regardless of whether the settlement includes language that denies liability or does not constitute an admission of wrongdoing.
Payments made by insurers or third parties count if they are made to resolve the tort claim and discharge OpenAI’s liability to the claimant. Pure payments that only cover defense costs without paying damages to the claimant may not meet the event’s threshold.
‘Before 2028’ is commonly interpreted as any time up to and including December 31, 2027 (i.e., the payment must occur prior to January 1, 2028). Confirm the market’s official timestamp rules if precise timing is disputed.
Primary evidence includes court records showing a judgment or filed settlement, filings with regulators if applicable, company disclosures or SEC filings, and claimant confirmations. Press reports can indicate events but are usually corroborated with official filings or documented payment records.