| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Democrats will win every gubernatorial race in the set of swing states specified by the event. The result matters because control of swing-state governorships affects state policy, administration of elections, and national political balance.
Gubernatorial contests are influenced by local issues, incumbency, and broader national trends; they can diverge from federal election results. 'Swing states' are typically those with closely divided electorates where outcomes are uncertain and can swing control between parties. Historical patterns show that sweeping every competitive governor’s race is uncommon and depends on a convergence of favorable local and national conditions.
Prediction market prices aggregate participating traders’ beliefs and update as new information arrives; they are a real-time signal, not a certainty. Interpret price movements as changing market consensus driven by polls, fundraising, turnout signals, and major news.
The market’s official event description specifies which states are included and the precise condition that constitutes a 'sweep' (for example: Democrats winning every listed gubernatorial race by the resolution criteria). Consult the market page for the definitive list and wording.
The closing date is set on the market page (currently TBD). Outcome resolution typically follows the market’s stated closing time and any resolution rules, which may require official certification or a specific adjudication date—check the event rules for details.
Resolution follows the platform’s event rules: many markets wait for official certification or a final adjudication specified in the rules. The market will resolve according to that process, which can include accepting final certified results after recounts or legal rulings.
Yes. Concurrent elections influence turnout and partisan enthusiasm, which can materially affect gubernatorial outcomes. While the market only resolves on the specified gubernatorial results, related contests and the national environment are important drivers of those outcomes.
Key drivers include late-breaking polling, major campaign spending shifts, endorsements, candidate scandals or withdrawals, localized economic news, turnout operations by state parties, and unexpected national events that change voter sentiment.