| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before November 4, 2028 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks whether Bernie Sanders will run for President in 2028. The question matters because his entry or absence would reshape the 2028 candidate field, primary dynamics, and policy debates.
Bernie Sanders mounted high-profile Democratic primary campaigns in 2016 and 2020 and has remained an influential progressive figure as a longtime senator from Vermont. Observers track his public appearances, endorsements, and policy activity as signals of political ambition. Any 2028 decision would build on his previous campaigns and the evolving priorities within the Democratic coalition.
Market prices reflect traders' aggregated expectations based on available information and will change as new facts emerge. Treat prices as real‑time signals of consensus, not definitive forecasts.
Settlement depends on the event's defined criteria. Many markets require a formal campaign declaration or an FEC filing as the trigger, but you should read the KALSHI event description to see the specific settlement rule for this contract.
That depends on the contract wording; exploratory activity sometimes signals intent but does not always meet settlement thresholds. Check the event page for whether exploratory committees are treated as a qualifying step.
If the market simply asks whether he will run for President, most settlements count any formal candidacy regardless of party; if the listing specifies a party path, only that route would qualify. Verify the exact phrasing on the event page.
Concrete signals like public announcements, major endorsements, large fundraising hauls, or hiring veteran campaign staff tend to increase trader confidence and move market prices; conversely, explicit statements of non-candidacy or concerning health reports tend to move prices in the opposite direction.
The close date is listed as TBD; KALSHI will close and settle the market according to its platform rules and the contract's settlement criteria. Monitor the event page for official updates on the closing schedule and the evidence used for settlement.