| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $47K | Trade → |
This market asks whether any candidate will meet the legal threshold to be elected president in the first round of Costa Rica's presidential election, avoiding a runoff. The outcome matters because an outright win determines the next executive without a second round and affects coalition dynamics and policymaking timelines.
Costa Rica uses a system where a candidate can be elected in a single round if they meet the constitutionally specified threshold; otherwise the top two proceed to a runoff. Elections have varied between first-round wins and runoffs in past cycles, and the vote is often shaped by multiple parties and shifting public sentiment tied to economic and governance issues.
Market prices reflect traders’ aggregated assessments of whether a first-round victory will happen and update as new information arrives; they are indicators of likelihood, not guarantees, and can shift with polling, news, or structural changes to the race.
A 'win outright' means a candidate meets the constitutional and electoral-law threshold required for election in the first round, thereby avoiding a second-round runoff; the specific threshold is defined by Costa Rican electoral law.
If the threshold is not met, the election proceeds to a runoff between the two candidates with the highest vote totals; the runoff winner becomes president.
Preliminary vote counts on election night usually indicate whether the threshold has been reached, but official confirmation requires certification by the national electoral authority and can take additional time.
Both outcomes have occurred historically: some elections produced first-round winners while others went to runoffs. Whether a contest ends in the first round typically depends on candidate concentration and voter alignment.
Watch late-stage public-opinion trends, new or withdrawn candidacies, major endorsements or alliances, debate performances and scandals, and real-time turnout reports — any of these can materially alter the likelihood of a first-round victory.