| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether any candidate will win an outright majority in the Brazil presidential race (avoiding a runoff). The outcome matters because an outright first‑round victory immediately decides the presidency, while a failure leads to a two‑candidate runoff that can change alliances and strategy.
Brazil uses a two‑round system: if no candidate receives a majority of valid votes in the first round, the top two advance to a runoff. Recent Brazilian elections have seen competitive multi‑candidate fields, regional voting patterns, and shifting coalitions that influence whether a clear majority emerges in round one.
Prediction market prices reflect the collective judgment of traders about the likelihood of an outright first‑round win; they update as new information (polls, events, legal rulings) arrives and can serve as a realtime synthesis of that information.
It means a candidate obtains an absolute majority of valid first‑round votes (more than every other single candidate combined), thereby winning the presidency without a runoff.
The top two vote‑getters advance to a second round (runoff) held according to Brazil's electoral calendar; the runoff determines the president between those two candidates.
Settlement will rely on the official certified first‑round result from Brazil's electoral authorities indicating whether any candidate achieved the required majority to avoid a runoff.
Major national polls showing consolidation behind one candidate, credible candidate withdrawals or coalition agreements, high‑profile endorsements, decisive debate performances, or judicial rulings affecting candidacies.
Consolidating supporters behind a single candidate increases the chance of a majority, while persistent fragmentation or the entry of new credible challengers reduces the likelihood of an outright victory.