| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 29 seats | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
This market asks whether any single party will win an outright majority in Costa Rica's 57-seat Legislative Assembly. The outcome matters because a single-party majority would enable smoother legislative action without formal coalitions.
Costa Rica uses proportional representation across multi-member constituencies, which has historically produced a multiparty legislature and frequent coalition governments rather than single-party majorities. Legislative elections are held on the same cycle as presidential elections, and seat allocation follows established electoral rules that reward vote distribution across provinces.
Market prices aggregate traders' information and expectations about election results and will respond to new polls, campaign events, and final vote counts. Use prices as a summary of current information rather than a fixed prediction — they can change as conditions evolve.
A majority means one party holds more than half of the Legislative Assembly's 57 seats — that is, at least 29 seats.
The market outcome will be determined once official, certified legislative election results for the relevant election are available; the certified seat counts by party are what resolve whether any party reached a majority.
No — the question asks whether any single party wins a majority on its own; formal coalitions or post-election agreements that produce a governing majority are separate from this event's criterion.
Proportional representation across multi-member districts tends to distribute seats among several parties, making outright single-party majorities less common than in majoritarian systems; district magnitude and vote concentration can still allow a party to win many seats if its support is geographically broad.
Yes — legislators can sometimes change affiliation or act independently after certification, which can affect governing control in practice, but the event is resolved based on the certified seat totals by party at the time specified for resolution.