| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Apr 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Poland will have a newly formed government before April 2026. The question matters because a government change can alter domestic policy, EU relations, and economic direction.
Poland's government is formed in the Sejm (lower house) and typically requires a prime minister who can secure parliamentary confidence; changes can come from scheduled or snap elections, coalition realignments, votes of no confidence, or executive resignations. Recent years have seen heightened political polarization, shifting coalitions, and debates over judicial and EU-related policy, all of which shape the stability and durability of cabinets.
Market prices represent aggregated trader views about whether a new government will be formed by the specified date and update as events and news change. Treat prices as a summary of expectations that can shift quickly after political developments, legal decisions, or coalition moves.
For this market, a "new government" generally means the appointment and formal acceptance of a new prime minister and cabinet that replace the sitting government—typically requiring a new coalition or parliamentary confirmation rather than minor ministerial reshuffles.
A new government can arise via an early (snap) parliamentary election followed by coalition formation, a successful vote of no confidence, the resignation of the prime minister followed by the formation of a different majority, or other constitutional procedures involving presidential nominations and Sejm confirmation.
Yes. Coalition partners can reconfigure their alliance or replace the prime minister if they can assemble a parliamentary majority; a vote of no confidence or negotiated transfer of power in the Sejm can bring a new government without a nationwide vote.
The President nominates a prime minister and can play a facilitative role in consultations; under certain constitutional conditions the President also has tools related to dissolving parliament or calling elections, but forming a stable government ultimately requires parliamentary support.
Timing varies: after an election, coalition talks can take weeks to months until a prime minister and cabinet secure Sejm confidence; following a coalition collapse, a caretaker government may remain in place while parties negotiate a replacement, and the process speed depends on political alignment and urgency.