| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2030 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Earth will experience a major meteor strike before 2030; it matters because such impacts can have significant local to regional consequences and are a focus of planetary defense efforts.
Historically, large impacts are rare but notable episodes — for example, airbursts and impacts in the past century have demonstrated both damage potential and detection challenges. Over the last two decades astronomical surveys and space agencies have improved detection of Near‑Earth Objects (NEOs) and established planetary defense programs, but observational gaps and long‑period objects remain.
Market prices represent the collective, real‑time assessment of participants given available information; they update as new detections, official confirmations, and scientific analyses appear and should be read as a crowd estimate rather than a precise scientific measurement.
The market resolves according to the contract's specific definition and thresholds; typically that includes a stated size, energy release, or damage criterion and requires publicly verifiable confirmation—consult the contract text and resolution policy for the exact definition.
The outcome depends on whether an eligible event occurs prior to the market's stated cutoff date; check the contract for the precise cutoff time and applicable time zone because resolution depends on that specification.
Resolution typically relies on confirmations from recognized scientific bodies and agencies (for example national space agencies, astronomical observatories, peer‑reviewed studies) and other reputable sources listed in the contract; the resolver follows those specified sources.
Whether airbursts count depends on the contract's wording and any energy or damage thresholds; many markets include damaging airbursts if they meet the stated criteria, so review the contract for the market's treatment of airbursts versus ground impacts.
Eligibility of retroactive findings depends on the contract and resolution rules: if the scientific evidence establishes the impact date before the cutoff and it meets the market's definition, it may qualify, but resolution follows the contract's verification procedures.