| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Party for National Development | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Patriotic Front | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which party or coalition will win the next Zambian National Assembly election; it matters because the Assembly outcome determines legislative control, influences policy direction, and affects investor and diplomatic expectations.
Zambia is a multi-party presidential republic with a unicameral National Assembly whose composition affects lawmaking, budgets, and oversight of the executive. Historically power has shifted among several parties, and outcomes are shaped by regional voting patterns, party coalitions, economic conditions tied to copper revenues, and the performance of incumbent officials.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective expectations based on available information and change as new data arrives; they are not official results and should be interpreted as dynamic, market-implied assessments rather than definitive forecasts.
This market’s listed close time is TBD; resolution will follow the event operator’s rules and typically occurs after official vote counts and certification by Zambia’s electoral authority. Check the event page for updates on scheduled close times and any announced resolution criteria.
The market resolves according to the specific outcome definition on the event page; that definition will state whether the winning condition is the party or coalition with the most seats, attainment of an outright majority, or another criterion, so consult the event’s resolution terms for the definitive rule.
Watch the major national parties that have historically competed for legislative control—such as the United Party for National Development (UPND), the Patriotic Front (PF), and other significant parties or coalitions—as well as influential regional leaders, prospective coalition partners, and prominent independent candidates.
Administrative delays and legal disputes can increase price volatility and may postpone final settlement if the operator’s resolution depends on certified results; markets typically remain sensitive to official announcements and the outcome will only be settled according to the published resolution rules after disputes are resolved or certification occurs.
Significant developments include major policy announcements or scandals involving leading parties, sudden changes in economic indicators (e.g., commodity shocks), high-profile defections or coalition agreements, rulings from courts or the electoral commission, and reports from observers about the conduct of the vote.