| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Lai | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hou Yu-ih | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Terry Gou | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks who will win the next Taiwanese presidential election and aggregates trader expectations about the eventual winner. It matters because the presidency determines Taiwan's domestic policy direction and cross‑strait and international relations.
Taiwan elects a president every four years; the office is the island's chief executive and a central actor in defense, trade, and diplomatic posture. Politics have long been shaped by two major party blocs, debates over Taiwanese identity and relations with China, and shifting voter demographics and economic concerns.
Market prices reflect the collective judgments of participants and update as new public information arrives; they are not guarantees but one real‑time signal among polls, expert analysis, and official processes.
Each outcome corresponds to one of the three options listed on the market (typically individual candidates or a candidate category). The contract that resolves to 1 will be the option that matches the official winner as certified by Taiwan's election authority.
Resolution follows the official determination of the election winner by Taiwan's Central Election Commission (or other designated authority). If certification is delayed by recounts or legal disputes, settlement will await the final official outcome per the market's rules.
Treatment depends on the market's rulebook and the official ballot status: if a listed candidate withdraws or is disqualified before resolution, the market operator may adjust, suspend, or cancel the affected outcome; check the market page and rule document for the exact procedure.
Major campaign events (debates, endorsements), credible polling releases, economic shocks, security incidents, shifts in party coalitions, and legal decisions related to candidacies are the types of news that typically cause notable price and volume shifts.
Increasing volume often signals new information or stronger conviction among traders; low volume implies thinner liquidity, so prices can move sharply on small trades. Correlate volume and price moves with external news and check order‑book depth before treating a move as durable.