| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sara Duterte | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Leni Robredo | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Francis Pangilinan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Win Gatchalian | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Grace Poe | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will win the next Philippine presidential election; it aggregates trader expectations about that future outcome and can provide real-time reflection of shifting political information. It matters because presidential outcomes shape national policy, institutions, and geopolitical alignments in the Philippines.
The Philippine presidency is decided by a nationwide popular vote and historically influenced by regional voting blocs, political families, party coalitions, and campaign networks. Recent elections have shown the importance of name recognition, media and social media campaigns, legal eligibility questions, and coalition-building across diverse islands and socioeconomic groups.
Market prices/odds represent the collective assessment of traders about which named outcome is most likely, and they update as new information arrives; they are not fixed forecasts but signals that change with developments in the campaign, administration actions, and legal processes.
Resolution follows the market’s stated rules and is typically based on the official result certified by the Philippine election authority (COMELEC) and any final, controlling legal determinations; check the event’s resolution policy for precise criteria.
It means the market lists five discrete named outcomes (usually five candidates); only the outcome corresponding to the officially declared winner will resolve as correct, so review the event details to see how unlisted winners or vacated outcomes would be handled.
Treatment depends on the event rules: the market may keep the listed outcome, substitute another label, void affected shares, or rely on official ballot records—traders should consult the event description and exchange policies for the exact process.
Markets typically wait for final, definitive determinations that the exchange recognizes for resolution—this may mean waiting until official certification and the conclusion of any controlling legal challenges; provisional counts are generally not final for resolution purposes.
Track candidate filings and withdrawals, COMELEC announcements and official counts, major campaign events and endorsements, credible national and regional polling, legal filings or court orders affecting eligibility, and significant shifts in media or social sentiment.