| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bola Tinubu | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kashim Shettima | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Atiku Abubakar | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Peter Obi | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which candidate will be declared the winner of the next Nigerian presidential election; it aggregates traders' views into a real-time signal about expected outcomes. It matters because markets can incorporate information from polls, events, and insider knowledge faster than many traditional sources.
Nigeria uses a modified two‑round system: a candidate must win a plurality of votes and at least 25% in two‑thirds of states to avoid a runoff; otherwise a second round between the top two is required. The race is shaped by regional and ethnic voting patterns, coalition-building within and between parties, the incumbent's standing, security conditions, and economic performance — all of which have driven prior election results.
Market prices reflect the collective judgment of participants about who will be officially declared the winner, not a predicted vote share; interpret movements as changing beliefs about who will be recognized as president following the election process and any subsequent legal resolution.
The event page currently lists the close as TBD; the platform will publish a specific cutoff. Markets of this type typically close at a preannounced time tied to the election process (for example, after official certification or a platform‑specified cutoff), so monitor the event page for updates.
The four outcomes correspond to the labeled options on this market (usually specific named candidates or a designated 'other' slot). Consult the event page to see which candidate or result each outcome maps to; outcomes are intended to be mutually exclusive possible official winners.
If a runoff occurs, this market is intended to resolve to the candidate who is ultimately declared the final, legally recognized president after any required runoff and certification. Resolution timing may wait until the authority certifies the final outcome consistent with the platform's rules.
Resolution follows the market's stated rules and typically depends on the final legally recognized result as determined by the electoral authority and applicable court decisions; this can mean the market remains open until disputes are settled in official channels.
Treatment depends on the timing and the platform's amendment policy: if a change occurs before any announced cutoff the platform may amend or void the market, or replace the outcome label; if it occurs after cutoff the market may still resolve based on the eventual official winner. Check KALSHI's event rules and announcements for specifics.