| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lebanese Forces | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| FPM | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hezbollah | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Amal Movement | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| PSP | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kataeb | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tashnag | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Marada Movement | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Independence Movement | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Election Postponed Beyond Expiration | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which party, bloc, or list will emerge as the winner of the next Lebanese general election; the result matters for Lebanon’s domestic governance, cabinet formation, and regional alignments.
Lebanon elects a multi-seat, confessional parliament on a proportional basis within electoral districts; political power is split among sectarian leaders and cross-cutting alliances. The country’s politics are shaped by a prolonged economic crisis, high emigration, and influence from regional actors, all of which affect party strength and voter behavior.
Prediction market prices aggregate participant views about likely outcomes and update in real time as new information arrives; use them as a snapshot of market consensus and as one input alongside polling, reporting, and on-the-ground developments.
Under Lebanon’s constitution parliamentary terms are scheduled; the practical date can be affected by political agreements or delays, so check official government announcements for the exact calendar.
Resolution depends on the market’s specified outcome definitions — typically the largest single party, the largest parliamentary bloc, or a named list — so review the market’s outcome descriptions and resolution rules on the event page.
Outcomes commonly represent major Lebanese actors and coalitions such as Shiite, Christian, Sunni-led lists, cross-sectarian independent lists, and major parties or alliances; consult the market’s listed outcomes to see which specific groups are included.
An official change to the election timetable can change the information set traders use; the market’s rules will state how such contingencies are handled — typically outcomes resolve based on the officially recognized election event or as specified by the platform.
Key triggers include major security incidents, shifts in backing from regional patrons, announcements of large pre-election alliances or withdrawals, sudden changes in voter registration rules, and major economic policy developments or crises.