| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coalition including ODM | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Coalition including UDA | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Coalition including DCP | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which party or coalition will emerge as the winner of the next Kenyan National Assembly election. It matters because control of the Assembly determines legislative agenda, leadership posts, and the ability to pass or block laws.
Kenya's National Assembly is the lower house of Parliament and is determined by a mix of directly elected constituency representatives and seats reserved through national or county-level mechanisms; control typically depends on performance across many diverse regions. Political dynamics are shaped by party coalitions, regional voting patterns, incumbency, and national issues like the economy, security, and governance. Historical shifts in alliances and legal challenges have repeatedly altered outcomes after votes are cast.
Market odds aggregate the views of traders based on available information and news and will move as new data or events occur. Treat odds as a real-time signal of expectations, not as official results; verify final outcomes with electoral authorities and parliamentary records.
Each outcome corresponds to the market-defined winner label (for example a specific party or coalition) as listed on the event page; consult the event wording for the precise definition used by this market.
The event page lists the market close as TBD; the operator will set the final close time, which may be before, during, or after vote counting—check the event page for updates and closure rules.
The winner is determined by which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Assembly (a plurality or majority, depending on context); actual control can hinge on coalition agreements, nominated or reserved seats, and post-election alliances.
Yes — depending on the market's settlement rules, formal coalition agreements, defections, and by-election results can affect which political grouping controls the Assembly; check the market’s settlement criteria for how such changes are handled.
Refer to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) official releases, parliamentary records, official gazettes, and reputable local or international news organizations for certified results and legal rulings.