| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vamos | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| National Unity of Hope | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Movimiento Semilla | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cabal | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Vision with Values | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Valor | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Todos | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which party or coalition will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election and matters because the composition of Congress determines legislative priorities, coalition-building, and the government's ability to pass laws.
Guatemala's party system is fragmented, with many parties and frequent post-election coalitions; congressional outcomes are shaped by regional vote patterns, local leaders, and national political dynamics. Persistent issues such as public security, migration, corruption, and economic performance typically dominate campaigns and influence voter choices.
Market odds aggregate traders' expectations at a point in time and update as new information arrives; treat them as a dynamic signal of perceived likelihoods rather than fixed predictions.
'Closes: TBD' means the market's trading deadline has not been set; the market will resolve according to the platform's rules once official, certified election results are available and any platform-specific resolution conditions are met—check the market page for updates.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific party or coalition named on the market page (the platform may also include an 'other' outcome); consult the event page labels to see which group each outcome represents.
The market defines the winner as the party or coalition that wins the largest number of congressional seats as officially certified, unless the market's resolution rules specify an alternative definition.
Resolution will rely on official, certified results and seat allocations published by Guatemala's electoral authority (the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, TSE) and any additional sources specified in the market's resolution policy.
Price-moving events include new public opinion polls, formation or dissolution of coalitions, high-profile legal rulings or disqualifications, major corruption or security incidents, official changes to candidate lists or election logistics, and shifts in turnout projections.