| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Democracy | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| SYRIZA | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| PASOK-KINAL | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which party or outcome will be declared the winner of the next Greek general election; it matters because the result determines Greece's governing coalition, domestic policy direction, and relations with the EU and markets.
Greece holds parliamentary elections at least every four years, but governments can call early (snap) elections; recent decades have seen competition between center‑right and left‑wing parties, with coalition dynamics often decisive. Economic recovery, debt policy, migration, and geopolitical concerns in the Eastern Mediterranean have been recurring themes shaping voter preferences.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations and update as new information (polls, events, announcements) arrives; they are a real‑time signal of perceived likelihoods but can move sharply on news and may be noisy when trading volume is low.
The market's close date is listed as TBD on the event page; typically prediction markets close before or at the time official results become available. Check the KALSHI market page for the announced close timestamp and any updates.
Resolution follows the market's published rules on KALSHI. Some markets resolve to the party with the most seats, others to the party heading the official governing coalition; consult the event's resolution criteria on the market page to see which rule applies here.
The market lists three discrete outcomes defined on the KALSHI event page; to know which parties or scenarios each outcome corresponds to, view the outcome labels and descriptions on that page, which are the authoritative definitions used for resolution.
Monitor the major national parties and their leaders (the primary center‑right and left‑of‑center parties, plus significant smaller players and potential coalition partners), because shifts in leadership, public approval, or strategic alliances among these actors are key drivers of election outcomes.
With a total traded volume of $1,600, liquidity is relatively low, so prices can be volatile and sensitive to a few trades or to new information. Use price changes as informative signals but factor in potential noise and check underlying news, polls, and the market's liquidity before drawing firm conclusions.