| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adama Barrow | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ousainou Darboe | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Essa Faal | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mama Kandeh | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market lets traders express beliefs about which candidate will be declared winner of the next Gambian presidential election. It matters because markets aggregate dispersed information and can move quickly when new political developments occur.
The Gambia returned to multi-party presidential competition after the 2016–2017 transition that ended long-term rule by Yahya Jammeh; subsequent elections and political realignments have shaped the current party landscape. Presidential contests in The Gambia are influenced by regional loyalties, party coalitions, internal party dynamics, and the performance of incumbents on economic and governance issues.
Market prices reflect the collective judgment of traders about who will be officially declared the winner, incorporating public information and private assessments. Use them as one of several information inputs rather than a definitive forecast—prices update as new events, legal rulings, or alliances change the outlook.
The market will resolve according to the platform’s published resolution rules; typically that means after an official, final outcome is publicly declared by the Gambian electoral authority or other adjudicating body specified in the contract. Because this market’s close time is listed as TBD, check the platform for announcements about the official close and any special conditions.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific named candidate or a bucket defined by the market creator (for example a particular candidate, a different named candidate, a third candidate, and an 'other' or similar option). Consult the market page to see exactly how each outcome is labeled and defined before trading.
Treatment of withdrawals, disqualifications, or court reversals depends on the platform’s resolution policy for this market. Some markets follow the official pre-election candidate list at a cutoff, others resolve to the candidate officially declared winner even if legal challenges occur later. Always read the market’s specific terms to know how such events are handled.
Resolution typically relies on the official announcement from the Gambian electoral authority (the body responsible for administering national elections) and any final court decisions if the contract specifies them. The market’s rulebook will state whether provisional announcements, appeals, or final judicial rulings govern the outcome.
Watch formal candidate nominations, major opposition or incumbent endorsements, coalition agreements, credible polling releases, high-profile legal challenges or disqualifications, reports from election observers, and sudden economic or security shocks; each can materially alter perceived chances and therefore market prices.