| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLN | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $20K | Trade → |
| PPSO | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| PUSC | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| PPSD | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| PNR | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| PLP | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $667 | Trade → |
| FA | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $623 | Trade → |
This market asks which party or coalition will win the next Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election; it matters because the Assembly determines lawmaking and coalition-building that shape policy for the next term. Market prices aggregate traders' expectations and can signal how observers judge each contender's chances.
Costa Rica's Legislative Assembly is a unicameral body elected every four years by multi-member districts; recent decades have seen a decline in the old two-party dominance and greater fragmentation among parties. Voters' concerns about the economy, public services, security, and corruption commonly drive legislative contests and the formation of post-election alliances.
Market odds represent the consensus view of traders at a moment in time and update continuously as new information arrives; they are not guarantees but useful real-time signals that complement polls and qualitative analysis.
Check the market's resolution rules: some contracts define 'win' as the party or coalition finishing first in seats nationally, while others require an absolute majority; the event description specifies the settlement condition and will be used to determine the winner.
The market's close time is set by the platform and may occur shortly before, at, or after official results are available; the event listing should state the closure time and the contracts will settle according to the stated rules once official results are certified.
Each outcome corresponds to a named party or coalition listed by the market creator; outcomes represent the discrete options traders can back as the eventual winner based on the contract's definition.
That depends on the contract language: if 'winner' is defined as the party with the most seats, post-election coalitions won't change the settled outcome; if the contract defines winner as a governing coalition that forms, then post-election agreements could determine settlement—consult the event rules.
Prices typically react rapidly to credible new information (polls, official announcements, scandals, endorsements), with larger and more liquid outcomes moving faster; however, speed and magnitude of response depend on trader activity and available liquidity on the platform.