| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Milei | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sergio Massa | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Eduardo de Pedro | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Patricia Bullrich | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Horacio Rodríguez Larreta | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This KALSHI market asks who will win the next Argentine presidential election and aggregates traders' expectations about the eventual victor. It matters because the presidency will determine Argentina's economic and policy trajectory domestically and in relations with regional and global partners.
Argentina's politics are shaped by coalition dynamics, periodic primary contests (PASO), and recurring economic challenges such as high inflation and currency volatility; these factors drive voter behavior and campaign tactics. The country's electoral system can produce runoffs when no candidate meets the threshold for an outright win, and coalition-building before and after primaries often reshuffles the competitive field.
Market odds on KALSHI reflect the collective, continuously updated beliefs of traders and incorporate new information more quickly than some traditional measures. They are signals of market sentiment and should be read alongside official polls, primary results, and economic indicators rather than treated as definitive forecasts.
TBD means KALSHI has not yet set a firm market close date; the market will remain open until the exchange defines a closing time, which is often tied to the election date, the official result certification, or a specified post-runoff settlement condition—check the market page for updates.
The five outcomes correspond to the specific candidates or candidate groupings defined by the market creator; each outcome's label and resolution criteria are listed on the market page, so review those descriptions before trading to confirm what each option covers.
Resolution depends on the market's explicit terms: many markets resolve to the candidate who becomes president after any required runoff, which can delay settlement until the runoff result is official—confirm the market's resolution rules on KALSHI to know whether the final president after any runoff is the settling criterion.
Settlement typically follows Argentina's official, final certified election results as announced by the country's electoral authorities; the market's rule page will specify which official declaration or certification is used for resolution.
Reported volume gives a snapshot of current liquidity—higher volume generally means tighter spreads and more reliable price discovery—while five outcomes mean trader attention can be spread across multiple options; lower volume or many options can make price movements more volatile and less informative, so consider liquidity when entering or exiting positions.