| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ekrem İmamoğlu | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mansur Yavaş | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will be declared the winner of the first round of the next Turkish presidential election. The first-round result determines whether the race is decided immediately or proceeds to a runoff, so it matters for coalition strategy, market expectations, and short-term political stability.
Turkey uses a two-round presidential system: a candidate who secures an outright majority of valid votes in the first round wins the presidency; otherwise the top two finishers move to a runoff. The Turkish political landscape is shaped by party alliances, the incumbent's standing, opposition coalitions, economic conditions, and recent legal and electoral developments.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders and update as new information arrives; they are one input among polls, on-the-ground reporting, and institutional signals when assessing who might win the first round.
It means the candidate officially declared the winner of the first round of voting by Turkey’s electoral authority; if no candidate achieves an outright majority, the market will reflect that no first-round winner is declared and the race proceeds to a runoff between the top two.
The three outcomes correspond to the named options shown on this event page; the market resolves to the option that matches the official first-round winner as certified by Turkey’s electoral authority, according to Kalshi’s published resolution rules.
The market’s close time is listed as TBD; final settlement will be based on the official, certified first-round result and on Kalshi’s stated closing and resolution policy once those details are set.
The market will resolve based on the candidate who is officially declared the first-round winner; if an outcome listed on the market is not on the ballot or a candidate is disqualified before voting, Kalshi’s resolution policy governs whether the market is adjusted, voided, or resolved to another outcome.
Key developments include formal alliance announcements, major campaign events or missteps, changes in turnout projections, court or electoral authority rulings affecting candidates, and major economic or foreign-policy shocks that shift voter sentiment.