| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hong Wang | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jacob Tsimerman | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Yu Deng | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jack Thorne | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| John Pardon | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sam Raskin | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Julian Sahasrabudhe | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Will Sawin | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Aleksandr Logunov | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Alexander Efimov | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which named individual will be awarded a Fields Medal in 2026; it matters because the Fields Medal is one of the most prestigious recognitions in mathematics and signals which researchers are seen as making the deepest recent contributions. Market prices aggregate informed opinions about likely recipients and respond to new evidence as it appears.
The Fields Medal is awarded roughly every four years, traditionally announced during the International Congress of Mathematicians, and recognizes exceptionally original and influential work by mathematicians early in their careers. Selection is made by committees of leading mathematicians who weigh depth, novelty, and lasting impact across mathematical fields. Because the prize is both rare and high-profile, nominations, recent breakthroughs, and community recognition all play strong roles in shaping expectations.
Interpret market odds as a running summary of collective beliefs given available information; they move as new papers, prizes, talks, or other signals arrive and are not guarantees. Use prices to track changing consensus and to compare which candidates the market views as gaining or losing momentum over time.
Settlement will follow the official announcement of the 2026 Fields Medal recipients; the exact market close time is set by KALSHI and may be updated on the market page, so traders should monitor the platform for the definitive close and settlement details.
Each outcome corresponds to a named candidate; outcomes that match the official list of 2026 medalists will resolve according to the market’s rules. If the contract allows multiple winners, multiple outcomes may pay out; check the market description for how multiple official recipients are handled.
Eligibility is constrained by the award’s age rule (typically under 40 on a specified cutoff date for the award year), so traders should confirm each candidate’s eligibility when evaluating their prospects for 2026.
Movers include major breakthrough papers or preprints, announcements of other major mathematics prizes, high-profile invited lectures or plenary talks, public endorsements by leading mathematicians, and any official signals about the nomination or selection process.
Yes—receiving other prestigious awards often increases a researcher’s visibility and can be consistent with eventual Fields recognition; such prizes are one of several signals traders use to reassess a candidate’s standing ahead of 2026.