| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexi Giannoulias | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Maria Pappas | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rahm Emanuel | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Paul Vallas | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Brandon Johnson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kam Buckner | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Joe Holberg | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mike Quigley | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Susan Mendoza | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which listed candidate will ultimately be declared the winner of the Chicago mayoral election. Outcomes aggregate public information and expectations about the race and can highlight which candidates markets consider most likely to prevail at a given time.
Chicago’s mayoral contests are nonpartisan municipal elections with a long history of neighborhood-based coalitions, strong ward-level organizations, and, when no candidate receives a majority, a runoff between the top two vote-getters. Local issues such as public safety, economic development, property taxes, and city services typically dominate campaigns and can shift voter preferences rapidly as the campaign unfolds.
Market prices reflect traders’ aggregation of public information, news, endorsements, and turnout expectations; they update as new information arrives and should be read as indicators of collective expectations rather than guarantees.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific candidate named in the market (and any explicitly listed alternatives such as a write-in option); the winning outcome will be the candidate officially certified as the mayor for this election.
Chicago’s municipal rules call for a runoff between the top two finishers if no candidate achieves a majority; this market is intended to resolve to the candidate who is ultimately certified as mayor after any required runoff and certification, per the market’s stated settlement rules.
The market close is listed as TBD; in practice, the operator may set a close aligned with election day, runoff results, or official certification. Check the market’s page or operator notices for any scheduled close or updates.
Historical features—such as the influence of ward organizations, the importance of coalition-building across neighborhoods, the impact of incumbency, and the potential for runoffs—help explain why late endorsements, turnout shifts, and targeted ground operations can materially change expectations over a short period.
Key issues include public safety, housing and development, property tax concerns, public transit and city services; influential voter blocs include racial and ethnic communities within different wards, labor and civic organizations, and precinct-level turnout among younger and older voters.