| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GERB–SDS | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| PP–DB | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Revival | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| DPS | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| BSP–OL | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| APS | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ITN | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| MECh | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Velichie | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| PB | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which party or coalition will win the next Bulgarian parliamentary election and aggregates trader expectations about that outcome. It matters because the result determines government formation, policy direction, and political risk for Bulgaria and the region.
Bulgaria has a unicameral parliament elected by proportional representation and recent electoral cycles have produced fragmented parliaments that require coalition-building. Political volatility, the presence of multiple competing parties, and occasional snap elections have made post-election negotiations a central part of who ultimately governs. External factors such as EU relations and regional security concerns also shape the campaign environment.
Market prices reflect the collective views of participants and update as new information arrives; they indicate relative expectations rather than guaranteed outcomes. Use them alongside polling, ground reporting, and institutional rules to form a broader picture of the race.
‘Closes: TBD’ means the platform will set and announce a specific closing time tied to the election timetable or administrative rules; check the market page for updates. Trades remain open until that announced close and settlement follows the market's stated resolution criteria once official results are available.
The 10 outcomes correspond to the specific parties or named coalitions listed on the market page; each outcome represents one entity that could be declared the winner under the market's resolution rules. Consult the market's outcome list to see which parties or coalitions are included and how 'winner' is defined.
The market will follow its published resolution rules, typically using the official election results reported by Bulgaria's electoral authority or another designated official source. The platform's event description will state whether 'winner' means most votes, most seats, or successful formation of a government, and how ties or legal challenges are handled.
Because Bulgarian elections commonly require coalitions, post-election negotiations can materially change who governs even if one party wins the most seats. Traders should confirm whether the market defines victory by plurality of seats, vote share, or successful government formation, and follow coalition signals such as public statements, mandate offers, and formal agreements.
Key patterns include fragmented parliaments with multiple parties above the electoral threshold, frequent reliance on coalitions to form a government, regional and urban–rural vote splits, and occasional snap elections. Also note the presence of smaller parties that can be kingmakers if they pass the electoral threshold; these dynamics affect both the likely winner and post-election bargaining.