| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thierry Mariani | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ian Brossat | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sarah Knafo | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| David Belliard | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rachida Dati | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Emmanuel Grégoire | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sophia Chikirou | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Pierre-Yves Bournazel | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will win the 2026 Paris mayoral election; it matters because the mayor shapes city policy on housing, transport, climate and investment, and the outcome signals broader political trends in France's largest city.
Paris municipal elections are shaped by local governance structures, arrondissement-level politics, and the interplay between local and national party organizations. French municipal contests typically allow for two rounds of voting and list-based coalition-building, so electoral alliances, endorsements and list mergers between rounds can be decisive.
Prediction market prices summarize traders’ collective assessments of who will win given available information and will update as campaigns, polls, and events unfold; they are not guarantees but real-time indicators that incorporate new developments quickly.
This market lists eight distinct outcomes; each outcome corresponds to a specific named candidate or categorical option available on the platform (for the exact names and labels, consult the market page).
The market closure is listed as TBD; that means Kalshi will publish a definitive close time later. Traders should monitor announcements on the market page because order deadlines and settlement timing will be determined when the close is set.
Settlement will follow the resolution rules provided by Kalshi, typically based on the official, certified election result published by the relevant French electoral authorities for the Paris mayoralty; check the market's resolution policy for exact sources and tie-break rules.
Municipal elections in large French cities involve a list-based system with one or two rounds and opportunities for lists to merge between rounds; as a result, second-round alliances and strategic list agreements can change the competitive field and enable coalition candidates to prevail even if they were not leading in first-round tallies.
Sharp price moves reflect traders incorporating new information; a high-profile endorsement or withdrawal can prompt rapid re-evaluation of coalition prospects, while national political events can shift voter sentiment in Paris. Consider liquidity, recent volume, and whether moves are sustained as you assess their significance.