| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Elon Musk | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Xi Jinping | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| King Charles III | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ Joe Biden | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Greta Thunberg | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Miguel Díaz‑Canel | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Pope Leo XIV | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ Andrew Cuomo | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
This market asks which named individual will physically visit New York City before June 2026. It matters because scheduled travel, diplomacy, and public events that bring high-profile visitors to NYC can affect media coverage, local planning, and related markets.
The market sits at the intersection of public scheduling (official visits, campaign stops, touring calendars) and unpredictable events (health, security, diplomatic shifts). Historically, arrivals of major political figures, entertainers, and sports stars to New York are driven by conference calendars, UN sessions, campaign cycles, and major cultural or athletic events. Traders monitor official itineraries, announcement cycles, and news outlets to update expectations.
Market odds aggregate traders' views about each named person's likelihood of visiting before the cutoff and will move as new information emerges. Use the odds as a real-time signal of market sentiment, remembering they can change quickly with announcements or cancellations.
Resolution depends on the platform's stated criteria for this market; typically a 'visit' requires verifiable physical presence within New York City limits (including boroughs and major airports) before the cutoff. Check the market page for the official resolution definition and acceptable evidence.
The market covers arrivals that occur prior to the calendar cutoff specified by the platform for June 2026. Because the market’s official close/resolution time may be set by the operator, consult the market page for the precise moment that determines eligibility.
Verification typically relies on reputable sources such as widely reported news coverage, official schedules or press releases, photos or video from verified accounts, or statements from the person’s office. The market operator’s resolution policy will list which types of evidence are accepted.
Only actual physical arrivals before the cutoff count; announced but canceled or postponed appearances do not count unless the individual later arrives before the deadline. Traders should follow official confirmations and real-time reporting for updates.
Whether multiple outcomes can resolve depends on how the market was structured. Some markets allow more than one named person to satisfy the condition; others are structured as single-winner events. Refer to the market rules or description to see whether multiple outcomes may be settled as true.