| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Maintains rate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike >25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what decision the Bank of Canada will make at its October 2026 policy announcement; that decision matters because it directly influences borrowing costs, inflation expectations, and financial conditions across Canada.
The Bank of Canada’s Governing Council sets monetary policy using tools such as the policy interest rate to meet its inflation-control target and support sustainable growth. Markets and policymakers form expectations over months as incoming data on inflation, output and the labour market are released, and those evolving expectations shape the context for the October 2026 decision.
Prediction market prices reflect the aggregate views of participants and will change as new economic data and central-bank communications arrive; interpret them alongside official BoC releases, data trends, and the contract’s settlement rules, while bearing in mind the market’s liquidity.
The market will settle based on the Bank of Canada’s official October 2026 policy announcement and the specific data or wording identified in the market’s contract terms; check those terms to see which BoC release (e.g., policy statement or published target rate) is used for settlement.
The Bank publishes its schedule of policy announcement dates in advance and the October decision will occur on the Bank’s scheduled date; this market’s page will show its own close and settlement timing, so monitor both the BoC schedule and the market’s deadlines.
They represent five mutually exclusive possible BoC decisions for October 2026—typically different directions or magnitudes of policy change (including a hold option); the exact mapping from BoC wording or rate values to each outcome is defined in the contract description.
Monthly CPI and core inflation reports, monthly employment surveys, quarterly GDP releases, significant central-bank announcements abroad, and major commodity-price shocks are the primary movers to watch, as they materially affect the BoC’s policy calculus.
The Governor and the Governing Council make the decision; relevant communications include the policy announcement and press release, the Governor’s press conference, the Monetary Policy Report, and speeches or interviews from Governing Council members for forward guidance.