| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Hannity | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dana White | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kid Rock | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Lee Greenwood | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sylvester Stallone | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Elon Musk | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bill Belichick | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dan Scavino | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Reid Wiseman | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of eight named individuals will be awarded the U.S. Presidential Medal of Freedom before 2027. It matters because the Medal is the nation's highest civilian honor and markets aggregate expectations about presidential choices and public recognition.
The Presidential Medal of Freedom was established in the 1960s to recognize individuals who have made significant contributions to national interests, world peace, culture, or public life. Presidents award the Medal to political figures, activists, artists, scientists, and others, often reflecting the administration's priorities and goodwill gestures across partisan lines. Timing and frequency vary by administration; some presidents announce large batches while others award Medals more selectively.
Market prices reflect traders' collective expectations about which named individual will be publicly conferred the Medal before the stated cutoff; they update as news and signals arrive. For precise resolution criteria and timing, consult the market's event rules rather than inferring from price movements alone.
‘Before 2027’ means any public conferment or official announcement that the named individual has been awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom dated earlier than January 1, 2027; check the market's rules for the exact cutoff time zone and formal resolution procedure.
Yes — the Medal can be awarded posthumously; a posthumous conferment counts as long as there is an official White House or equivalent federal record confirming the award before the cutoff and the market's resolution criteria are met.
Resolution depends on the market's explicit rules: some markets designate a single winning outcome (e.g., the first listed person to receive the award) while others may be structured differently; consult the event page for the exact tie or multi-winner policy.
Official White House announcements or press releases, presidential statements, and authoritative federal records are the primary sources used for verification; the market's resolution rules will specify acceptable sources and evidence.
Some presidents announce Medals in batches around holidays, major anniversaries, or at the end of a term, while others make ad hoc appointments tied to events or individual achievements; analysts look at the current administration's historical behavior and upcoming calendar windows to identify likely announcement periods.